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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler💃 of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals💖, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is d💟etermined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliꦯga have abouꩵt the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, hoಞme strength is a myth.
Typica🍷lly 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 ♏% of all wins are based upon a one-goal-mar▨gin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. 🍃🔴By implication 75% of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away win🤪s is constantly getting bigger. While duri♊ng the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the laꩵst two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especi🐽ally informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly bette🔯r conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16🦂 goals.
A 🤡season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores agains🍎t an average opponent)
The coincidence averagesﷺ out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offe🌺nse and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportu♚nities would perfectly predict the performance level.
The goal dif▨ference is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average🍎.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, ther✨efore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take placeও during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foo🦄t!“
In the con𒀰text of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical ꦿfor all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promot🀅ed teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help o♑f the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportuni꧂ties you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the b🌌est team wins and becomes Ge♎rman champion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was nꦉegative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is enough for today, we will let you know𝕴 another rime.